Will Europe Embrace America’s F-35 Edge in the Skies?

We are certainly witnessing remarkable and challenging times in Europe. The continent feels caught between opposing forces: threats loom from both the east and the west, leaving the European Union right in the middle. Recent actions from Western allies have eroded trans-Atlantic confidence to unprecedented levels. Because of this, many European organizations are re-evaluating their reliance on cloud services owned by US giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. Is it possible that these tech partnerships could soon follow the same path as controversial defense agreements, such as the potential cancellation of F-35 fighter jet orders from NATO-member countries?

While I don’t claim to be a political analyst, I do have personal opinions. My goal here is simply to examine the current situation as objectively as possible, without debating the underlying motives or individuals involved.

Understanding the Threats

Since awareness of these issues may vary around the world, I’ll summarize the current state of affairs.

Concerns from Russia

Eastern European businesses hold deep-rooted concerns about Russia. Until recently, I hadn’t realized just how extensive their preparation and anxiety were. Nations such as the Baltic states and Finland have prioritized readiness for decades—Finland since the WWII era, and the Baltic states ever since gaining independence from the former USSR.

If history repeats itself (as it often does), Russia may re-arm following any negotiated peace in Ukraine and could look to assert power over regions like the Baltics, Georgia, or elsewhere.

Changing Dynamics with the USA

The US has shown unpredictable behavior and, since earlier this year, trust has suffered due to:

• Pressuring Denmark to relinquish Greenland.
• Threatening trade hostilities with the European Union.
• Unilaterally backing out of international treaties, including some concluded during Donald Trump’s presidency—such as the trade deal with Canada.
• Withdrawing military aid shipments to Ukraine.
• Adopting rhetoric that aligns more with Russian governmental perspectives.

Many NATO states have active agreements to procure the F-35 fighter jet from the US. Recently, an increasing number of voices within these countries have called for the cancellation of these contracts, citing a fear that the US may abruptly halt the supply of essential parts for this highly maintenance-dependent aircraft.

Simply electing a different US government is unlikely to restore lost trust. Policy shifts and reversals have become the norm, with little regard for previously established international agreements.

Implications for IT

Within the technology sector, there are two primary concerns linked with US-based cloud providers:

1. The American government might disregard data privacy agreements—potentially demanding access to European citizens’ data stored on US-owned cloud infrastructure.
2. Rising political or military tensions could prompt US authorities to cut off access to American cloud services for European clients, possibly influenced by emotional or political motivations rather than rational ones.

What’s the Current Climate?

Recently, there’s been modest discussion about moving away from US-owned hyperscale cloud platforms. My curiosity led me to conduct a quick, non-scientific LinkedIn poll targeting European users, especially after the tense press conference involving Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and former President Donald Trump. I wanted to know whether European organizations were considering alternatives to US cloud providers.

To my surprise, 60% of those surveyed indicated they’re actively considering shifting away from American cloud solutions.

Wired published an article titled “Trump’s Aggression Sours Europe on US Cloud Giants”, illustrating the swelling skepticism:

Global resistance to a second Trump administration is mounting. Boycotts of US goods have sparked in Canada, anti-Elon Musk and Tesla protests are widespread across London, and many European officials have ramped up defense budgets in response to waning US support for Ukraine. Major American tech companies could soon become the next target.

Further elaboration in the article notes that some organizations are:

• Shifting away from cloud providers like Azure in favor of on-premise systems or European-based cloud alternatives.
• Halting or canceling planned migrations to US-owned hyperscale clouds.

These trends represent only a small segment of organizations, not a mass exodus—at least for now. But the landscape could change dramatically in the coming years.

Exploring Alternatives

If there’s widespread belief that US cloud platforms are no longer sustainable, then dependency on American enterprise software, such as Windows and VMware, also faces significant risk. The US government could, in theory, suspend product support, system updates, or critical security patches for certain nations.

Looking back, Munich’s early embrace of open-source solutions in the face of Microsoft dominance seems prophetic. The city started to move away from Microsoft software back in 2004—a move many, myself included, once dismissed as impractical. The initiative struggled due to the entrenched use of Windows-based legacy applications, resulting in an expensive and challenging migration. While their project met widespread criticism, perhaps Munich saw something we didn’t at the time—maybe their timing was just off by two decades, or their reasoning wasn’t suited to the current reality.

The EU, in my opinion, would benefit from developing its own independent technology ecosystem. Steps could include:

• Building a Linux distribution specifically for Europe.
• Coordinating a large-scale, EU-backed initiative akin to the Manhattan Project, investing in R&D with regional tech partners to launch cloud-scale data centers and essential software services to ease cloud migrations.

Whether this vision becomes reality remains to be seen. While I have reservations about whether politicians are equipped to lead such ambitious change, I’m convinced that major transformation is due—albeit costly and disruptive.

It’s not easy to accept this, especially after dedicating much of my career to Microsoft technologies. I continue to believe Microsoft strives to do what is right—Satya Nadella stands out as a tech leader who hasn’t overtly aligned with the current US administration. The company faces immense pressure: public opposition to Trump could mean losing lucrative US government contracts, yet open support for the administration risks alienating both employees and international clients. It’s a tough spot for Microsoft and others. We shall see how these dynamics unfold in the near future.